Five Figure July, Don’t Mind If I Do

I feel like I really has my shit together for July. I started the month of strong, worked super-hard mid-month, and then kinda took it easy at the end of the month and enjoyed the summer a little bit which definitely cost me some money, but was definitely +Life EV.

Game Profits (SNGs and MTTs) = $3771.05
Rakeback = $3580.07
Leaderboard, Rake Race, and other Bonuses = $4489
Total July Profits = $11,840.12

Well suffice to say I’m pretty happy about that My goals for July included playing a good sample of $55 and $110 Turbos, which I did. Played about 450 of each, ran pretty bad in the $55s (-3.23 %) and pretty meh in the $110s (+1.97%.) I also ended up playing a lot of satellite SNGs since I find the fields to be soft, and there are often extra satellite challenge bonuses and the like. I crushed the $69 Satellite SNGs over 262 games (+9.29%, not including Satellite challenge Bonuses) But I ran like shit in the 66 $175 Satellites I played (-16.75%.) It’s only a 66 game sample and I crushed the $100 Multi-table Satellites which were also for $535 dollar seats so w/e. I ended up finished second in the Full Tilt 1.5 Million Gtd Sat challenge by 2 wins (28 seats won vs 30.) It was really down to the wire, and in one game the eventual winner was All In vs 2 opponents on the Bubble, Trippled Up, Doubled up, then I ended up busting and that was +1 seat for him and -1 for me, so suffice to say it was a close race. I still got $500 for my efforts, the winner took home 1K.

Another goal I had was to play 1K Super Turbos. I ended up changing my mind on this one. I’m not sure how profitable Supers really are at the higher stakes, and I’m not sure I want to risk the money to put together full samples at the highest stakes to get a better idea. I’m about -5% in both the $160s and the $70s. Granted the samples are only 269 and 573 games, but at the moment I just don’t feel that these are best for my bankroll, my confidence, or my growth as a player. I mean, the attainable ROIs in these games are < 3%, they are usually full of solid players, and even if they're not, the edges are so small that even when you're up against a ton of fish, unless they're open shipping Ace Rag in first position, your ROI is still going to be very low, because everyone has to get in marginal situations in these games.

I see a ton of Full Tilt Red Pros playing these games, but that makes a lot of sense. They surely get more than 27% rakeback. If I was getting a larger % of my Rakeback, then perhaps these games would be profitable for me too. I know that well renowned SNG pro JHub3000 just recently quit playing Super Turbos on Cake, even with a sick rakeback deal, and he had been one of the longest standing proponents of Super Turbos profitability. I know these games are beatable at the lower stakes at large degrees, but I’m just not so sure about the top tier. I’ve decided that the only Supers I’m going to play are the $42s. Anything lower would be a waste of my time, anything higher and the variance is gonna tilt me (mostly b/c I’m not sure if the games actually are profitable, or if I’m just throwing money after bad.) Also, I have a sick 11.69% ROI over the 450 games I’ve played at $42+3, so might as well make that my game

Rather than playing Super Turbos, I’m going to attempt to continue moving up the SNG ladder in normal Turbos and also in regular speed games. I’ve been playing $200+16 non-Turbos, $220+16 Turbos and $330+20 Turbos; and I’ve been doing well in all of them. I feel like I have a significant edge in these games, and from table selection alone I know I’m profitable at every game I sit down at. Also, non-turbo SNGs are seriously easy. I mean obviously if you had 8 experts at the table they wouldn’t be, but the point is that you don’t. As a rule the field in non-turbos is full of people who limp fold, people who play too many hands, and people who don’t understand ICM, bvb play or bubble dynamics.

I know that Turbos are still going to make more money per hour since you can play two turbos for every one non-turbo, but if I’m going to deviate from playing all turbos, I would rather raise my ROI and lower my variance with non-turbos and lower my ROI and increase my variance with Super Turbos. Also, I feel like the added consistency may actually boost my confidence and lower my stress, which might in turn help me play my A-game more often. It’s hard to play or keep playing your A-game when you just get crushed the way you sometimes can in Supers.

Another point that JHub3000 made regarding his decision to quit playing supers is that they negatively impact your ROI, which can impede your ability to market yourself. This is something I have thought a great deal about. I have contacted sharkscope several times to request that they make a filter that would include Turbos but NOT Super Turbos, and they have said that they would, but I don’t see it yet. As it stands, playing super turobs at the highest levels, where the achievable ROIs pre-rakeback are very close to 0%, is going to hurt your overall ROI if you’re a strong SNG player.

For example, my 9-man SNG Stats for May-July Including Super Turbos are as follows:
2.87% ROI over 4615 games for +11,153.25 in profits (pre-rakeback)
Those same stats including only 9-man Turbos and non-Turbos but NOT Supers:
5.13% ROI over 2841 games for +13,938.60 in profits (pre-rakeback)

Now honestly with the additional rakeback from playing more games, it’s probably a wash with the money lost in Super Turbos, and the only thing I’m really losing is my time. However, it makes my 5%+ ROI (in games at the $55-$330 level) appear to be a much less impressive 2.87%. Also, wasting time pretty much is wasting money, since I could be playing a game that is profitable.

5% at these stakes is plenty good enough to coach at a major site, or otherwise establish yourself as an authority on SNGs. 5% at the $110+9s is $5.95 a game. Add in Rakeback and you’ve got $8.38/game, each game takes 45 min, 9-tables at once and your hourly is $100.56. That’s a pretty good wage.

My final goal for July was to get top 2 on the Full Tilt High Limit SNG leaderboard, and top 5 in my rake race. I did meet the first goal, and I was in 5th in my rake race all month long, and there were a lot of people hovering around 1K in rake behind me. As I mentioned earlier, I decided to take some time to enjoy life, and it did cost me a bit of money. I coasted the end of the month and dropped to a respectable 10th. All in all it cost be $250. I also fell behind in my FTOPS satellite challenges, and that cost me some more $, and obviously not playing costs $ to begin with, so all in all I probably could have scraped at 15K this month, but honestly, it’s whatever.

If all you do in your free time is worry about the money you could have been making, well that’s no way to live. That would mean you don’t really have free time at all since you’re stressed or preoccupied during it, and freedom was the whole reason that I got into poker in the first place. I didn’t get into poker to be controlled by the lifestyle or the money. I wanted the freedom this lifestyle and this money could give me.

On that note, I’m going to take it very easy for the month of August and enjoy the Summer days while they last. My lease is up @EOM, so I’m going to be moving, selling a ton of stuff on craigslist, visiting with friends, enjoying the weather, ect… I’m contemplating a move to Vegas at present. I’d really like to get out somewhere sunny. I have a lot of personal stuff to figure out with regards to the prospect of moving cross country, so I’m going to be dealing with that mostly. I’m still going to try and get some poker in, but I’m not going to set any firm goals. All I’m going to say is that I want to enjoy the month of August, and it would be nice to run good when I do play