..................I can haz downswing?

Well March seemed like quite a ride, with a solid start, and terrible middle and then a fantastic end.

6.65% ROI over 719 games for a profit of $1423.65
$431.12 in Rakeback
$400 in other Bonuses
$21.9 in Cash Game Winnings

Total profit for March = $2276.67

Breakdown by stake according to Shark Scope

Super Turbos:
$7+$.50 = 3% ROI over 71 games +$16
$14+$1 = 16% ROI over 24 games +$56

Turbos:
$22+$2 = 24% ROI over 202 games +$1196 (I have a little Shark next to my name, joy!)
$33+$3 = 4% ROI over 180 games +$222
$55+$5 = 1% ROI over 145 games +$116

I played a few regular speed games and some Heads Up matches and made a little money in those, but not enough games for any kind of sample. All my sample sizes are actually very small, partially because I’m apparently a huge slacker, partially b/c I don’t play enough tables, and partially because I play multiple stakes concurrently to get the best of table selection. I’ve been dabbling with the Super Turbos b/c I noticed that the only way to hit the top spot on the leaderboards is to play these since you get points for placing in tournaments and you can obviously play the most tournaments this way. Also, you make more in Rakeback because you play more games, but you also have a higher ROI because the rake-to-stake ratio is lower than standard turbos. Seems like a no-brainier. The play in Super Turbo is also often terrible since it attracts players who like to gamble. I think a lot of players are put off by Super Turbos because of the luck factor and because the variance is probably going to be very high, but I think in terms of long run profits they show a lot of promise and I’m going to be experimenting with them a lot in the future.

Also, I think I need to recognize that although there are plenty of donks in the $33s and $55s, the $22s are a lot easier. I think part of the disparity in ROIs is b/c I ran really well in the $22s and really poorly in the $55s, but also I think I forgot how many people with stack off preflop with AQ or KQ in the $22s. That’s like free money. I’m back up to 9 tables and I think it’s going to be a permanent change unless I’m playing a new stake or game. I find that I have a tendency to get overly tricky if I don’t play enough tables, and also my sample sizes suck so I need to play more volume. I mean, I don’t have a job, so only playing 719 games in a month is piss poor. I did spend much more time reading poker books, being active on the 2+2 forums and watching training videos in march than I did February, mostly because I was running bad and needed to refocus, but still my volume needs to increase moving forward.

I completed my goal for March of $2000, so that’s solid. It wasn’t a terribly lofty goal, but it’s still pretty nice to hit it. I haven’t put any serious volume onto stars yet, but I may this month since I will probably be taking a break from the Iron Man Challenge on Full Tilt and just buying a 1 month extension on my status at the Iron Man Store. I’m flying to England this Saturday and will be there for most of April, until the 19th visiting family. I’ll probably be doing a ton of reading, thinking, philosophisizing and whatnot. I’m going to bring the laptop, but idk how much I’ll be playing if at all during those 2+ weeks.

Because of my trip, I’m not going to set a goal for April. It would be nice to have another 2k+ month, but I really have no idea how much I’ll be able to play, so instead I’m going to set a bit of a long term goal. My lease for my apartment ends August 15th, and I’m really not sure what I’m going to do with my life at that point. I would like to have a 20K roll by then, so that I can cut out 10K to live on and then play professionally full time on my 10K roll and see where I can get to by the time I need to take from it again. I may even decide to start giving myself weekly paychecks, idk, but 20K by August 15th is my goal. As of this writing I’m at $6778. Looks like I have a lot of work to do…

February was an odd month in a lot of ways. First off, the month being 28 days (a full 10% shorter than most months) sorta messed up my calculations when I was predicting how much money I would make. Secondly, I ran hotter than Astroglide down Audrey Bitoni’s ass crack for the first part of the month, and then started getting more savage beatings than Rhianna. Let’s just say I didn’t exactly reach my goal of $4K in profits for February…

That being said, February was still a pretty good month. I definitely improved from January in a lot of ways, both skill-wise and results. I ended the month with an ROI of 8.25% over 781 games, up almost 5% and $1425 from January’s 3.43% over 813 games, not bad by any means. The frustrating part, and the reason I didn’t post all month, is because when I was running hot, I was running so hot that I knew it had to end and I was a little scared. It all started when I mixed in $33+3 Turbos, for my first 50 or so games my ROI was like 60%, just savage. I made over $1000 before I hit 100 games. I was playing well, but that’s also a lot of luck. An ROI over 50% is just not anywhere close to sustainable. Idk if anything much above 10% is really possible long term in 9-man SNGs above $10.

My overall ROI for most of February was about 15%, but with the downswing coming toward the end of the month I free-fell to just over 8% by month’s end. Like I said, still good, but a little disappointing after doing so well (and not to be a spoiler for March, but the downswing continues…) Mid march I was up $2500 not counting rakeback and pretty optimistic about by $4000 goal, but alas I ended the month up only $1516 for SNGs. Factor in $413 in rakeback and you get $1929, a far cry from $4000. If only I hadn’t lost a grand in the last week, Ugh! But wait, it actually gets worse…
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This is something I’m going to start doing at the end of every month, looking back and seeing how the month went, how my bankroll grew, what I learned, the progress I’ve made, and what I think are legitimate goals for the following month. Hopefully this is something I’ll get done right at then end of the month, instead of almost a week later, but no promises

So I started out January with $953.23 online in my Full Tilt Account earning Rakeback. I ended the month at $2,156.21 for a profit of… let me whip out my iPhone calculator… $1,202.98.

Now $1200 dollars is great to someone who has lost every dollar they put online in the past, but it’s not really that great when you’re trying to make a living. Luckily I had approximately $2000 in live winnings to put me over $3000 for the month, but that’s not something I can always count on.
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This past weekend I took down the 11am $75+$15 at Turning Stone Casino for $2040.  I bested a 109 person field and then parlayed my way to a uneven split 3-handed with just shy of 50% of the chips. First was like $2500, with second around $1500 and third around $800.  We agreed I’d take $2040, and the two remaining players would split the rest.  I suggested an exact ICM split, but the concept was lost on my opponents, lol.  Guess that explains why I was murdering the final table with my perfect push/folding.  The even split would have been $1640 a piece, so basically they each shipped me $200 and I passed up on the chance to make an extra $400 while forgoing the risk of walking away with only $800.  Sorry variance, not today buddy.

To be honest, I felt pretty confident that I could scoop the tournament, but anything can happen and I actually really needed the money.  I’m looking at this as 3 months of rent payments or 4 car payments.  I effectively doubled my bank acct, pretty sick.  I would say the most meaningful thing about this victory is not actually the money though, its the fact that while I was playing, I had this incredible sense of confidence, and I could literally define the edge I had on the other players at the table, and where it was coming from.

The best way to describe what it was that I felt like I knew exactly what I was doing.  Perhaps it’s the fact that I could almost guarantee that I’ve spent more time playing, studying and thinking about poker than anyone else who I played against.  Perhaps it’s the fact that I play turbo SNGs all day and this tournament had a very fast blind+ante structure making the effective stacks very small (when I was chipleading the tournament at the final table my M was still under 10.)  Whatever the reason, it was an extremely motivating feeling, and there’s nothing better than working hard at something and getting the results you deserve.

It was also very cool that my crew were all watching the final table with drinks in hand, and no sooner did I scoop my 2K and I got to celebrate (get smashed and go to dinner) with some of my best friends on this earth.  Amazing weekend, and I gotta say, as much as the tournament was a great experience, I think I enjoyed spending time with my friends more.

It’s cool to look back on the days then I wanted to play 4 tables at once, but I just played horrible whenever I ran more than 2 games simultaneously, and I could honestly pick up reads at only one table at a time.  I’m pretty much the worst multitasker ever.  I can’t even get dressed and talk on the phone at the same time.

I guess it should give hope to any aspiring player who wants to become an online rounder but can so far only play a couple tables.  It just takes a ton of practice, and you gotta move up slow when you feel comfortable.  When I started playing seriously I went up to 4 tables almost immediately because I played $1.25 and then $2.25 stakes so all you have to do is play basic strategy and you can have at least an 8% ROI (I think mine was like 16%.)

From there I went up to $6.50s once I felt totally comfortable playing 4 tables at once, and eventually added in 2 more games putting me at 6 at a time.  That was a huge personal victory for me.  I didn’t know if I’d ever be able to play more than 4 because of my inherently bad multitasking abilities.  I played 6 games at a time for probably 3 weeks to a month, playing at least 30 games a day and playing almost every day.

Last Saturday I made the jump up to 9 games at a time, and to be honest, it’s not that much tougher than 6.  Also, it’s got the added benefit of making it easier to fold marginal situations because there is always something better going on.  I know I should have the will power to make those decisions (like folding AQo UTG) regardless, but having lots to focus on helps.

For anyone curious about the logistics, I have a 19″ Laptop with a 1920×1200 resolution, and I play my games with all tables visible 3×3.  I don’t technically tile the tables, I actually use Full Tilt Planner (which is must-have freeware for anyone serious about multitabling on FTP.)  With my resolution there is no horizontal overlap, and only a small amount on vertical overlap.  I also use Full Tilt Shortcuts which will activate my tables on mouseover and has a hole hoard of other useful features.  The best ones are keyboard shortcuts for betting/folding, auto-street betting (fills the bet field with the amount you will most likely bet), and the features that can automatically open tables at your buy-in level, avoid sharks, and close all the annoying messages and lobbies.

Full Tilt Shortcuts can actually do the same thing that Full Tilt Planner does as well, but I stick with planner because it’s free, I already have it configured, and Shortcuts might take a while to get set up the way I have Planner.  I have enough RAM to run both, so if it’s not broke I won’t fix it

Running 9 tables at once makes it easier to blast through stretches of “variance” and also helps me earn Rakeback faster, and accumulate more bonuses (in my case, my deposit bonus, and Iron Man Medals.)  It will also help me get in enough volume to find my true ROI, and hopefully increase my hourly rate.

I did some searching on the top players at my stakes according to the Full Tilt Leaderboards and Sharkscope.  Most of the big winners are 16 tabling.  I’d like to be there someday, but idk when that will happen.  Like I said, 9 is feeling pretty comfortable already, so I’ll definitely be sticking at 9+.  I’ll probably need to go to another monitor pretty soon.  I might be able to swing 12 on my laptop at 3×4, but there is no way I can get more than 12 without almost complete overlap, and although I haven’t tried overlap, I don’t think I’ll be a fan.

And it feels damn good…

I made a few changes to my game, which I will get into in more detail in future posts, but namely I stepped up my note taking, and I tightend up even more early, and became even more aggressive late game.

I know it’s like “Duh” but it took me a while to realize that at the 15/30 level, even hands like AQ are better off folded if you’re first in b/c you’re not going to win anything significant, but you could lose.  And on the Bubble,  it’s not just about getting in the $.  It’s about putting yourself in a position to win the tournament.

So anyway, my ROI for this past Saturday was something rediculous like 47% with a first place in over 25% of the SNGs I entered.  Just sick.   I think with bonuses I made like $600 in about 15 hours spread over 2 days.

I decided to play some SNGs and try to get things back under control. I 6-tabled $6.50 Turbos for about 3 hours. Played a total of 28 games and cashed 15 times with 6 wins. Pretty stellar 54.3% ROI and $99 profit is not bad for just under 3 hours work.

Obv this is running good, but wtf, I deserve to run good right about now.

Very disappointing with my finish today. I got crippled when a donk shoved K6 on the button obviously not realizing I limped UTG. I snap-called with 55 and he Kinged me. Luckily I got it all back when UTG raised and I called out of the BB with KQ planning on going for the stop-and-go (all-in whatever comes.) Well the fliop came King high, I shoved KQ and he stacked me off with KJ.

Next hand I have 33 in the SB. There’s a limper in late position, so I can’t shove b/c there’s a good chance he limped a pair higher than 33. I catch a set on a rainbow disconnected board. I check and it checks around. Turn is a Jack, so I bet out 1/2 pot and get called by the late-pos limper. River is a Q, I bet out a little under half-pot and get reraised all-in. I can’t fold, of course he has A10. Great effen call buddy. Terrible.

I mean, as far as theory of poker is considered it was brilliant. I made bets that were incorrect for him to call, he called anyway. So I guess I’m happy that he called me down, I’m just unhappy he hit. Everyone seems to be hitting on me these days (in poker, not so much with the ladies.) Ugh.

So I busted out of the RakeTheRake Tournament when an early position raiser called my reraise all-in (of 5x his bet) with 87 suited and proceeded to rape my Queens. Sucks to make it to the top 20% of a tournament that pays 10% and then get cracked by undercards…

I was also making a run in the Pokercast Badugi freeroll and having a blast playing (Badugi is wicked fun for those that have never played.) Unfortunately I went for a steal from the cutoff and got flatted by the button. We both had mediocre hands and he caught better than I did and it crippled me.

Still going strong in the WBCOOP with approximately 40%of the average stack. Haven’t got many solid hands, and when I did have something like 99 of JJ I faced a bet on an overcard flop or a reshove if I Cbet

Now the antes have kicked in and I’m stealing like crazy trying to catch up. Should be out soon

Today is a big tournament day for me.  Not only do I have the WBCOOP Final, but I also have the 2+2 Pokercast freeroll as always, and my 22K Rake the Rake freeroll, and they all start at 3pm!  Well actually the Pokercast freeroll is at 2:55pm, which is why I always miss it, but they’ve added let reg for people like me.

If you’re not getting rakeback, you really are missing out big time.  I clear like $15 a week on top of bonuses from rakeback alone playing at the $6.5-$12 level.  I personally recommend Rake the Rake because I have found that they have the highest rakeback offers in the industry, and they also have awesome promotions.  Truth be told any number of sites can give you the 27% back at Full Tilt, but Rake the Rake has monthly freerolls like this one that I’m playing in, and also rake races and lots of other promotions.  I shopped around and I really think that Rake the Rake is the best site because they have the most promotions (free added value for you) and they have pretty much every site imaginable, making it convenient to have all your rakeback deals through the same site.

Remember, there is no rakeback for Poker Stars, so it doesn’t matter where you sign up.  I vote you click my button (top right) and ship me the $50 referral.

Anyway, 3 MTTS all starting at 3pm, all with sick prizes, and not a penny paid in entry fees.  Should be +EV